Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
