Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
